The divisional round of the NFL playoffs has arrived, and for the first time in 13 years, both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have already been eliminated. The absence of the two warhorses, aged 45 and 39, respectively, emphasizes the youth of the remaining eight starting quarterbacks. In fact, none of them is over the age of 30, and only two are over the age of 26.
How much faith should we place in these relative newcomers? They all finished in the top 12 in a telling metric: adjusted expected points added per play this season, according to rbsdm.com, with the minimum set at 200 plays so that the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy and his small sample size can qualify. Here’s a list that uses just the right combination of advanced statistics and a more traditional look at a quarterback’s career track record to produce an exquisitely authoritative set of rankings for the quarterbacks who will take the field this weekend.
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27 years old | 6 NFL seasons
2022 adjusted EPA/play: 0.306 | QBR: 77.7 | PFF passing grade: 89.0
Sometimes you just have to lay up. Mahomes appears to be a lock to win his second NFL MVP award after leading the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41), as well as EPA per play and QBR for the AFC’s top-seeded team. There’s also the fact that he’s the only starting quarterback left on the field who has won a Super Bowl. Buffalo’s Josh Allen entered the season as the MVP favorite, but Mahomes proved once again that he is simply the best this league has to offer.
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26 years old | 5 NFL seasons
2022 EPA/play adjustment: 0.231 | 2022 QBR: 71.5 | PFF passing grade: 86.1
Allen delivered a campaign that was somewhere between his breakout 2020 campaign and last year’s slight step back in terms of individual quality. He was one interception shy of the NFL lead with 14, and he led the league in turnover-worthy throws with 32, according to Pro Football Focus game charters. He made up for those errant passes in part by rushing for 762 yards (third among quarterbacks behind Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson) and seven touchdowns.
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26 years old | 3 NFL seasons
2022 EPA/play adjustment: 0.181 | 2022 QBR: 58.8 | PFF passing grade: 90.2
Allen and Burrow were a close call because, while the Cincinnati star does not have the same rushing threat, he had a far better 2022 with his arm. Burrow received the highest passing grade from PFF, finished ahead of Allen in passer rating (100.8-96.6), and outperformed his Buffalo counterpart in the first round of the playoffs last week (0.090 adjusted EPA per play vs. Allen’s negative-0.066). Burrow would have pushed ahead in the end, but it’s difficult to be certain of his performance with the Bengals’ offensive line so shaky. This issue will be resolved on the field when their teams meet on Sunday.
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24 years old | 3 NFL seasons
2022 EPA/play adjustment: 0.225 | 2022 QBR: 66.4 | PFF passing grade: 80.6
The possibility that Hurts is still hampered by a sprain in his throwing shoulder isn’t encouraging, but he’s off the injured list and says he’s “feeling good.” In his 15 regular-season games, the former Alabama and Oklahoma star excelled, posting huge gains in passing efficiency metrics while finishing tied for second among all players with 13 rushing touchdowns. Even if he isn’t 100 percent on Saturday, Hurts will be protected by PFF’s top pass-blocking unit. He will, however, want to play much better than he did in his postseason debut last year.
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29 years old | 7 NFL seasons
2022 EPA/play adjustment: 0.183 | 2022 QBR: 57.9 | PFF passing grade: 72.1
What a difference one week can make. Prescott was masterful in a first-round win at Tampa Bay after appearing disinterested at best in a lopsided regular-season finale loss at Washington. His adjusted EPA per play (0.736) against the Buccaneers was the highest of any quarterback in that round, with only Purdy coming close. Prescott threw four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 143.3 passer rating in his best postseason performance. The problem is that he was only so-so in his first four playoff games, especially in the previous three dating back to 2018.
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23 years old | 1 NFL season
2022 EPA/play adjustment: 0.196 | 2022 QBR: 65.3 | PFF passing grade: 74.4
How is Purdy, the reigning Mr. Irrelevant with only six NFL starts under his belt, not at the bottom of this list? Because given how much confidence he has shown in himself, there is plenty of reason to be confident in him. Last week, he shredded Seattle for 332 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 131.5 rating, so the playoff stage didn’t seem too big for him. His adjusted EPA per play (0.709) was also extremely high, as it was during the regular season, when his mark of 0.196 ranked sixth among all quarterbacks. Purdy may not succeed in the long run, but for now he has the advantage of excellent coaching, an elite group of weapons, and a lack of haunting experiences at this level.
7
Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence
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23 years old | 2 NFL seasons
2022 EPA/play adjustment: 0.142 | 2022 QBR: 54.7 | PFF passing grade: 73.2
Lawrence looked a lot like the generational talent he was billed as going into the 2021 draft while leading Jacksonville all the way back against the Chargers last week. However, the first half, in which he threw four interceptions, did occur. His initial meltdown must be considered, especially in light of the fact that Lawrence lost a league-high nine fumbles this season, and he deserves credit for pulling himself together in time to stun Los Angeles. Even if the Jaguars do not have a disastrous start on Saturday, Lawrence may have to dig himself out of another hole if the Mahomes-led Chiefs run all over them.
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25 years old | 4 NFL seasons
2022 EPA/play adjustment: 0.119 | 2022 QBR: 60.8 | PFF passing grade: 72.7
He looked extremely impressive in knocking Minnesota out of the playoffs, but it’s important to remember that a) the Vikings were total frauds, especially on defense; b) Jones didn’t have many big games this season, let alone during his previous three seasons, when he had the distinct whiff of a bust; and c) this is a difficult group to stand out from, especially with Purdy getting more credit. All of this is to say that Giants Coach Brian Daboll, who has done an excellent job with Jones this season, could have been saving something for the postseason. In Minnesota, he dialed up 11 designed runs for Jones, seven more than the quarterback’s season average.