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The playoffs have begun, and the New York Giants are optimistic about their Wild Card game against the Minnesota Vikings. A 27-24 loss in Minnesota a few weeks ago was almost more of a good thing than a bad thing, as the G-Men demonstrated that they are more than capable of competing with the 13-4 Vikings. Indeed, I believe they should have won that game.
Aside from a moneyline wager, I’m thinking about a fun parlay to spice things up. I’ll only bet a small amount on this bet, but if it comes in, we’ll win at +2500 odds. Here are the reasons why I like each leg of the parlay:
Under 48.5 points: While the Giants-Vikings game three weeks ago saw 51 points scored, historically the UNDER hits a lot in the first round of the playoffs. Since 2004, the under has gone 50-30 in Wild Card games, resulting in a 62.5% hit rate. The Giants’ defense has also improved recently, allowing 4.8 yards per play over the last three games compared to 5.6 overall. New York’s defense allows the fifth-lowest red-zone touchdown percentage in the NFL (49.2%), and their offense ranks fifth in yards per attempt. All of this points to a low-scoring game in a playoff round known for it.
Darius Slayton can score a touchdown at any time: The Vikings’ pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. During the regular season, they allowed 13 touchdown passes to wide receivers, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and 11.1 yards per completion overall. This plays to Slayton’s advantage. Slayton averaged 19.8 yards per catch against Minnesota three weeks ago, totaling 79 yards on four catches. He’s only caught two touchdown passes this season, but his ability to break a big play intrigues me against a defense that allows wide receivers to make big plays.
Saquon Barkley is a touchdown scorer at any time. Barkley, a more conventional pick, scored a rushing touchdown against the Vikings earlier this season. But, more than just recent history, Minnesota’s defense struggled against the run this season, allowing 4.5 yards per rush. This has gotten worse over the last three games, rising to 5.4 yards per rush. Against Minnesota, Saquon averaged 6.0 yards per carry. This boosts my confidence in the under and makes me believe that Saquon will score. Plus, if the Giants are going to win this thing, Saquon will be a big part of it.